Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, August 10th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory to start the new week off in the right direction. Stocks are mixed during early trading with the Dow up 218 points and the Nasdaq down 43 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (0.55%), but weakness late Friday is going to cause this morning’s mortgage rates to appear approximately .125 of a discount point higher than Friday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday increase in rates Friday afternoon, you may not see another this morning.

5/32


Bonds


30 yr - 0.55%

218


Dow


27,652

43


NASDAQ


10,967

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low


Unknown


None

There is nothing of importance scheduled today. The rest of the week brings us the release of six pieces of monthly and quarterly economic reports, including a couple of highly important releases. In addition to the data, there are also two Treasury auctions set that may influence rates mid-week.

High


Unknown


Producer Price Index (PPI)

July's Producer Price Index (PPI) will be posted at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, giving us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings that analysts follow in this release. They are the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Analysts are predicting an increase of 0.3% in the overall index and a rise of 0.1% in the core reading. Stronger than expected readings may raise inflation concerns in the bond market. That would be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market as it erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments. As inflation becomes more of a concern in the markets, bonds become less appealing to investors, leading to falling prices, rising yields and higher mortgage rates.

---


Unknown


None

Overall, Friday is the best candidate for most active day for rates due to the number of economic releases and the importance of the Retail Sales report. That said, it is fairly safe to assume that we will see plenty of movement in rates this week. The importance of some of the data, the fact that bonds are testing a key resistance level again and what is likely to be plenty of political and aid package headlines make it high likely rates will move noticeably multiple days. Therefore, it would be prudent to watch the markets closely if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.